Design of a Climate Model for Forecasting and Alerting Meningitis Epidemics in Burkina Faso

In this paper we are interested in the impact of climatic factors on the meningitis epidemic. To do this, we analyze data from 1990 to 2020 on climatic factors and on the number of reported cases and deaths from meningitis. So, we established a multi-linear model giving the number of reported cases of meningitis as a function of four environmental variables studied on the one hand and the number of deaths as a function of the same environmental variables on the other. The aim is to propose a mathematical model of the meningitis epidemic according to these climatic factors. Analysis of climate models shows that climatic factors such as temperature, humidity and wind favor the spread of meninigitis epidemics in Burkina Faso because their impact coeffcients in the number of cases model are positive. By applying the Alienor method to the number of cases model, it turns out that the geographical positioning of Burkina Faso does not allow for a climate favouring zero cases of meningitis. The emphasis should therefore be placed on raising awareness among the population about good hygiene and wearing a mask (nose cover).